Positioning & customer fit

Your startup's ICP is based on guesses: how to rebuild it from deals

Replace an untested ideal customer profile with evidence from wins, losses, buying triggers and operating fit.

The short answer

Start with customers who bought, used the product and stayed, then compare suitable losses. Record the trigger, pain owner, previous solution, decision process and prerequisites. Treat the resulting ICP as a working rule that can be revised, not a demographic slogan.

Diagram for Your startup's ICP is based on guesses: how to rebuild it from deals: Select deals; Find patterns; Test exclusions.
Decision framework: Select deals → Find patterns → Test exclusions.

Choose the right comparison group

Do not build an ICP only from every company that signed a contract. Include customers who activated and stayed, plus accounts that looked promising but stalled or churned. Compare the buying moment and operating conditions, not just industry and headcount. The won/lost ICP guide offers a fuller deal-review method.

Find discriminating facts

Look for the previous solution, the problem owner, the event that made the problem urgent, the buying committee and the resources needed to succeed. A useful ICP says who is unlikely to succeed as well as who might buy. A list of broad attributes that applies to half the market will not help a marketer choose targeting or a seller decline a bad-fit request.

Write a testable rule

For example: “Teams with an active multi-location rollout, a central operations owner and enough data to integrate are promising; teams seeking a one-off report without an owner are not.” That is a hypothetical rule, not a claim about any actual client. Test it against recent deals and new enquiries. Record where it misclassifies a good opportunity.

Keep exceptions visible

An unusual customer may become a new segment, or it may be a costly exception. Track it without immediately rewriting the ICP. Revisit the rule after enough deals mature to judge adoption and economics. The objective is better marketing and sales decisions, not a perfect static persona.

An ICP evidence grid

Create rows for recent customers, churned accounts, stalled deals and rejected enquiries. Use columns for trigger, problem owner, previous solution, required capability, budget path and observed outcome. Add a column for evidence quality: direct buyer statement, CRM note or internal inference. Do not treat all three as equally reliable. Look for conditions that distinguish successful customers from merely interested ones.

Write a provisional “yes, maybe, no” rule. A yes account has the trigger and prerequisites seen in strong customers. A maybe account lacks one piece of evidence and needs a question answered. A no account lacks a condition the product currently requires. Test the rule with sales on the next ten enquiries and record where it fails. Marketing can then change targeting and page language, while product can see whether a repeated exclusion signals a future opportunity. Keep the rule small enough for a seller to use on a live call.

Revisit exclusions when the product or onboarding requirements change.

Frequently asked questions

Should churned customers be in an ICP analysis?

Yes. A sale followed by poor activation or churn can show that the company was not a good operating fit despite an initial purchase.

Can the ICP change after a new segment wins?

Yes. Document the evidence and update the rule when repeated behavior supports it, rather than changing it after one attractive account.

Why Mohit is writing this

Mohit runs First 10, a fractional CMO and go-to-market practice for pre-seed to Series A founders across B2B, B2C and D2C. His work covers diagnosis, positioning, channel decisions and building the marketing team.

About Mohit and his work
Make the next decision

Is your ICP broad enough that every company appears to fit?

Bring a mix of wins, losses and wrong-fit enquiries. We can turn those cases into a more useful qualification and messaging rule.

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